Martingale System Simulator
An educational tool demonstrating why the Martingale betting system and other progressive betting strategies are mathematically flawed and inevitably fail over time.
⚠ Critical Warning: No Betting System Can Beat the House Edge
The Martingale system does not work. While it may produce short-term wins, it is mathematically guaranteed to fail in the long run. This tool exists to demonstrate why progressive betting systems are dangerous, not to help you use them.
No betting system, strategy, or pattern can overcome the house edge. The mathematics are absolute.
Interactive Martingale Simulator
Watch the Martingale system in action. See how quickly bankroll requirements escalate and how inevitable losing streaks lead to catastrophic losses.
Select a Game
Calculate how much bankroll you would need to survive various losing streak lengths using the Martingale system.
See how table limits make the Martingale system impossible. Casinos set limits specifically to defeat progressive betting systems.
Compare results across multiple sessions to see how variance leads to eventual failure, even after initial "success."
What is the Martingale System?
The Martingale system is one of the oldest and most famous betting strategies, dating back to 18th-century France. The principle is simple: after every loss, double your bet. When you eventually win, you recover all previous losses plus gain a profit equal to your original bet.
On paper, it sounds foolproof. In practice, it's mathematically guaranteed to fail.
❌ The Myth
"You can't lose forever. Eventually you'll win, and when you do, you'll recover everything plus profit."
"Even if you lose 10 times, the 11th bet will bring you back to profit."
"The house edge doesn't matter because you're always betting until you win."
✅ The Reality
Losing streaks long enough to bankrupt you will happen. It's not a question of if, but when.
Table limits prevent indefinite doubling. Casinos specifically set limits to defeat this system.
The house edge applies to every bet. No pattern of bets can eliminate it.
Why Martingale Fails: The Mathematics
Let's examine why the Martingale system is fundamentally broken, using mathematics documented by researchers in probability theory and gambling studies, including foundational work referenced by Britannica's probability theory resources.
Problem 1: Exponential Growth
With each loss, your required bet doubles. Starting with a €10 base bet:
| Loss # | Bet Required | Total Invested | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | €10 | €10 | €10 |
| 2 | €20 | €30 | €10 |
| 3 | €40 | €70 | €10 |
| 4 | €80 | €150 | €10 |
| 5 | €160 | €310 | €10 |
| 6 | €320 | €630 | €10 |
| 7 | €640 | €1,270 | €10 |
| 8 | €1,280 | €2,550 | €10 |
| 9 | €2,560 | €5,110 | €10 |
| 10 | €5,120 | €10,230 | €10 |
Notice the asymmetry: you're risking €10,230 to win just €10. The risk/reward ratio is absurd.
Problem 2: Losing Streaks Are Inevitable
According to research published in the Journal of Gambling Studies, gamblers systematically underestimate the probability of long losing streaks. In European roulette (48.6% win probability on even-money bets):
- 10 losses in a row: 0.13% probability per sequence, or once every ~769 bets on average
- 8 losses in a row: 0.52% probability, occurring roughly once every ~192 bets
- 6 losses in a row: 1.8% probability, occurring roughly once every ~55 bets
If you play 1,000 rounds of roulette, you'll likely experience a 10-loss streak at least once. When it happens, you'll lose everything.
Problem 3: Table Limits
Casinos set table limits precisely to defeat Martingale. A typical table might have a €5 minimum and €500 maximum. With a €5 base bet, you can only double 6 times (€5 → €10 → €20 → €40 → €80 → €160 → €320) before hitting the limit. Seven losses in a row - a 1% event - ends the system.
Problem 4: The House Edge Still Applies
The Martingale doesn't eliminate the house edge; it just restructures when losses occur. According to the European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA), progressive betting systems are recognized as a risk factor in problem gambling because they create an illusion of control while the mathematical reality remains unchanged.
Expected value is always negative. The house edge on European roulette is 2.7%. No betting pattern changes this.
Why People Believe It Works
The Martingale system persists because of cognitive biases documented by BeGambleAware research:
- Survivorship Bias: You hear about short-term winners, not the many who went bankrupt
- Gambler's Fallacy: Believing that wins become "due" after losses
- Recency Bias: A few successful sessions make the system seem proven
- Illusion of Control: Having a "system" feels safer than random betting
Alternative Betting Strategies: Do Any Work?
No betting system can overcome a negative expected value game. Other progressive systems like D'Alembert, Fibonacci, Labouchère, or Oscar's Grind all share the same fundamental flaw: they cannot eliminate the house edge.
The only way to reduce gambling losses is to:
- Set strict loss limits and stop when reached
- Play games with lower house edges
- Treat gambling as entertainment, not income
- Never chase losses
⚠ Responsible Gambling
If you're attracted to betting systems because you believe they can help you win money from gambling, this is a warning sign. Gambling should be entertainment, not a financial strategy.
Progressive betting systems are associated with higher rates of problem gambling. If you find yourself:
- Increasing bets to recover losses
- Believing you've found a "winning system"
- Chasing losses despite mounting debts
Please seek help from:
- BeGambleAware - Free support and resources
- Gambling Therapy - International support services
- GamCare - UK helpline and counseling
Related Tools & Resources
- Ruin Risk Calculator - Calculate probability of losing your entire bankroll
- Streak Probability Calculator - Understand why losing streaks are inevitable
- House Edge Calculator - Learn why the house always wins
- Bankroll Management Calculator - Plan responsible gambling budgets
- Gambling Self-Assessment - PGSI-based screening tool
- Session Simulator - See long-term gambling outcomes
- Problem Gambling in the EU - Statistics and prevention
- Glossary - Key gambling terms explained
⚠ Legal Disclaimer
This tool is for educational purposes only. It demonstrates why progressive betting systems fail, not how to use them. No betting system can overcome the house edge. If you choose to gamble, please do so responsibly and within your means. If gambling is causing harm, please seek help from organizations like BeGambleAware or Gambling Therapy.
Last Updated: January 2026